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財經觀察中東緊張局勢急劇升級凸顯油價波動風險
2020-01-06 23:33   来源:  www.match-bo.com   评论:0 点击:

財經觀察中東緊張局勢急劇升級凸顯油價波動風險伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊下屬“圣城旅”指揮官卡西姆·蘇萊曼尼3

  伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊下屬“圣城旅”指揮官卡西姆·蘇萊曼尼3日在美軍實施的襲擊中身亡。分析人士認為,這一事件凸顯中東地緣政治緊張可能給2020年國際石油市場造成沖擊的風險,投資者需要為更多油價短時顯著波動做好準備。

Qassim Suleimani, commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps \"Al-Quds Brigade,\" died in an attack carried out by U.S. forces on Wednesday. Analysts believe the incident highlights the risk that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could hit international oil markets by 2020, with investors needing to prepare for more short-term significant volatility in oil prices.

  受這一消息影響,交易員們本能選擇避險,紐約油價和布倫特油價3日盤中一度分別上漲%和%,布倫特油價距離每桶70美元的整數關口僅一步之遙。

Traders instinctively opted to take refuge on the news, with New York oil and Brent oil rising at one point in intraday trading by% and%, respectively, just a step away from the $70-per-barrel integer mark.

  美國斯特拉斯福公司高級全球分析師馬修·貝表示,這一襲擊可能挑起伊朗和伊拉克國內支持伊朗勢力的嚴重報復,或導致海灣地區和中東其他地區石油基礎設施受損。

Matthew Bay, a senior global analyst at the U.S. firm Strasford, said the attack could provoke serious retaliation from Iranian and Iraqi domestic support for Iranian forces or damage to oil infrastructure in the Gulf and elsewhere in the Middle East.

  今年9月,沙特國家石油公司兩處石油設施遭無人機襲擊并引發火災。也門胡塞武裝宣布實施了襲擊,但美國指責伊朗是襲擊的幕后黑手,伊朗對此予以否認。石油設施遇襲一度導致沙特原油日產量大幅減少,觸發油價飆升。

In September, two Saudi Aramco oil installations were attacked by drones and sparked a fire. Yemen's Houthi forces announced the attack, but the United States accused Iran of being behind the attack, which Iran denies. The attack on oil facilities once led to a sharp reduction in Saudi crude daily production, triggering a surge in oil prices.

  能源視線咨詢公司首席石油分析師阿姆里塔·森表示,由于人們都在關心伊朗將會采取何種報復舉措,市場做出本能應激反應,油價因此會出現3%或4%的漲幅。

Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energyline Consulting, said oil prices would rise by 3% or 4% as markets responded instinctively to concerns about what retaliatory measures Iran would take.

  美國史蒂弗尼古拉斯公司執行董事巴里·班尼斯特日前表示,石油市場受沖擊是美國經濟2020年面臨的兩大風險之一,中東緊張局勢可能在年中導致油價大幅上漲。

Barry Banister, executive director of Stevie Nicholas Inc., said yesterday that the oil market shock is one of the two biggest risks facing the U.S. economy in 2020, and that tensions in the Middle East could lead to a sharp increase in oil prices in the middle of the year.

  瑞銀集團旗下對沖基金瑞銀奧康納公司首席投資官凱文·拉塞爾表示,市場應該對油價可能發生的大幅變化做好準備。

Kevin Russell, chief investment officer at UBS O'Connor, a hedge fund owned by UBS, said the market should be prepared for a big change in oil prices that could take place.

  新華財經分析師鄭彬認為,去年10月以來上升趨勢一直主導油價走勢,地緣風險加劇無疑進一步強化了這一方向。同時,主要產油國減產計劃也將在本月開始落實,這也支撐油價上漲。

Zheng Bin, a financial analyst at Xinhua, believes that the upward trend since October has dominated oil prices, and that the heightened geopolitical risk has undoubtedly further strengthened this direction. At the same time, plans to cut production in major oil-producing countries will start this month, which will also support higher oil prices.

  不過,一些分析人士認為,在當前石油庫存充足、產能富余的供需格局下,地緣政治緊張難以令油價持續居于高位。

However, some analysts believe geopolitical tensions are hard to keep oil prices high in the current pattern of supply and demand with abundant oil stocks and spare capacity.

  瑞銀集團財富管理全球首席投資官馬克·黑費爾3日表示,如果中東形勢惡化,石油供應中斷,會使原油價格大幅上漲,給經濟和金融市場帶來沖擊。不過,國際石油市場目前產能充足,石油輸出國組織(歐佩克)和俄羅斯目前均有富余產能。此外,由于美國和挪威等產油國供應增長,預計2020年尤其是上半年會出現每日30萬桶的供應過剩。

UBS's global chief investment officer for wealth management, Mark Heifer, said on Wednesday that if the situation in the Middle East deteriorates and oil supplies are disrupted, it could send crude oil prices sharply higher, hitting economic and financial markets. However, the international oil market is full of capacity, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia have spare capacity. Moreover, an oversupply of 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) is projected for 2020, especially in the first half, as oil producing countries such as the United States and Norway grow.

  黑費爾認為,盡管目前中東緊張局勢很可能使國際油價出現大的風險溢價,但2020年上半年布倫特原油期貨價格要維持在每桶70美元上方比較困難。地緣政治事件本質上不可預測,此前此類事件對市場大范圍的影響均比較短暫。

While the current tensions in the Middle East are likely to give international oil prices a big risk premium, it is harder for Brent crude oil futures to stay above $70 a barrel in the first half of 2020, he said. Geopolitical events are inherently unpredictable, after a relatively short-lived impact on the broader market.

  阿姆里塔·森認為,伊朗如采取報復措施需要花費一些時間,這期間油價將回吐一些漲幅。除非真的發生供應中斷,否則當前油價上漲不會持續。

Amrita Sen believes it will take some time for Iran to retaliate, during which oil prices will return some gains. Unless there is a real supply disruption, the current oil price rise will not be sustained.


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